The Caspian Sea Region: a renewable hub for European energy security?

In recent years, Europe has turned its attention to the Caspian Sea as a key region to diversify away from Russian energy supplies and strengthen European energy security. The Caspian Sea is the world’s largest inland water body which lies at the crossroads between Europe and Asia, bordering on Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Russia and Iran. With its abundant energy sources, European stakeholders are intensifying their relations with some of the littoral countries.

Immediately after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU secured an agreement with Azerbaijan to double natural gas supplies to 20 bcm annually by 2027, fulfilling around 6% of the EU’s annual gas consumption. Moreover, some EU member states like Germany and Italy have increased imports of Kazakhstan’s oil to cover for short-term demand.

Beyond traditional fossil fuels, the Caspian Sea region is positioning itself as a key producer and transport hub of renewable energy (RE), green hydrogen and critical raw materials (CRM) in the long run. The proposed Caspian Green Energy Corridor – initially planned between Georgia and the EU – opens up opportunities for Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan to supply renewable electricity to the European market via two cables in the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea – which are yet to be built.

However, the position of the Caspian Sea does not always allow countries to bypass Russia’s grip, posing a challenge to European energy security. This alert maps the geopolitical dynamics underpinning Caspian Sea energy relations and cooperation with Europe, highlighting the position of each littoral country. Can Europe navigate these dynamics and shape a role for the Caspian Sea region in its energy procurement?

Read the full policy brief here.